Today, June 5, 2012 is the date of the historic recall election of Governor Walker of Wisconsin. The brave leader who in 18 months turned a several billion dollar deficit into a 147 million dollar surplus without raising taxes, firing workers. No, he simply used the opportunity to work with his legislature to change laws/rules affecting collective bargaining by state workers including teachers. How this was achieved is well documented elsewhere as well as the resulting disorder and turmoil in Wisconsin. My point is this...most polls predict a 3-5% Walker win with one poll showing a 12% win. Here is what I predict: 59% Walker, 41% opponent.
I say this because what union member in their right mind would ever indicate they support Walker? I don't trust that polls are private. That pollsters are who they say they are. That my opinions are kept private. Members of public unions are going to support Walker at a much higher rate than expected, but they will not admit it until they enter the privacy of the voting booth. Or should I say, former union members now that Walker's reforms got the state out of the business of collecting union dues?
This prediction is supported by the fact that over 900 thousand signatures were obtained to recall Walker, but only 600,000 or so voted for the two running to oppose him. I can see it now, teacher at work is asked to sign the recall petition, sure OK give it to me. However, once in the voting booth if the teacher even goes to vote, something completely different happens.
This outcome has a great deal of meaning for Obama in November. Obama supporters like to point out Obama's "likability". What this means is someone may tell a pollster they disagree with Obama's policies or where the country is heading, but by "liking" Obama they are putting down a marker that says: Don't call me a racist, I like him! Liking Obama is simply protection against being called or perceived to be a racist. It is code and tells you very little about how one will vote. Like Walker's opponent, Obama looses big in November.
